WILL THE BUSINESS CYCLE PEAK IN 2010 ?
Earlier, recession in USA was studied and
recessionary periods
were calculated astrologically. Business cycles are now studied. Months for peaks and troughs of business cycles in USA are available on the internet and are presented below
Months for peaks of business cycles are obtained from that data and are correlated here to suggest the next coming business cycle peak. For this purpose the peaks are considered in two groups for correlation. First group contains data for years 1855 to 1915 and second group for years 1955 to 2015. The data are presented in table-1.
table-1
Month and year for the peaks
are shown in the table.
GROUP 1
GROUP 2
6-1857
8-1957
10-1860
4-1960
4-1865
---
8-1869
12-1969
10-1873
11-1973
3-1882
1-1980
---
7-1981
3-1887
---
7-1890
7-1990
1-1893
---
12-1895
---
6-1899
---
9-1902
3-2001
5-1907
12-2007
1-1910
1-1913
7 peaks in the two groups are well correlated, 1 peak of group 1 seems split in group 2 and 5 peaks of group 1 are missing in group 2.
A suggestion can be made about peak in 2010. Since peaks for 1965 and 1987 are missing, it is safe to suggest that peak in 2010 would be missing. Next peak of business cycle would then be expected in 2013.